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Update December
THE COMING LOCAL FILE SEARCH WARS
Now that Google and other engines have indexed billions of pages on the Web, what's the next big frontier in search? It is to bring that technology home by extending search to your local desktop. How many of us have multi-gigabyte hard drives now with hundreds, or even thousands of documents, images, spread sheets, and other files that we wish we could find in an instant? You know you took notes on a certain topic in a meeting with a client several years ago, but what was the name of that document? Where is it now?
Microsoft Windows provides a file search function, but if you've ever used its text search against a hard drive that contained thousands of files, you know how painfully slow it can be. Wouldn't it be nice if you could do a search for any keyword contained in any document or e-mail, and have all the best matching files appear instantly, ranked by relevancy, like Google does so well with Web documents? That's what Microsoft, Google, Ask Jeeves, HotBot, and others are all promising in the near future.
HotBot, owned by Terra Lycos, has fired one of the first shots in the local file search wars. HotBot Desktop is a free browser toolbar that promises to quickly search various types of documents and e-mail files on your hard drive. The tool is still in beta, so my first experience with it was not so positive. Fortunately, consumers should have multiple local search tools to choose from before the end of the year, with most of them expected to be free.
AskJeeves announced its acquisition this month of Tukaroo, Inc., a private desktop search company. Reportedly, this was in response to Google's plans to expand into local file search.
Microsoft has made it no secret that it plans to integrate high-speed local text search into the next version of Windows, code named Longhorn, and expected for release in 2006. Consequently, Google has announced that it has been quietly developing its own local search tool over the past year, code named "Puffin." Google even hired a former Microsoft Product Manager to help manage the development of the tool. A pre-cursor of that product may be Google's desktop search tool that can run in the Windows task bar rather than just the user's browser. The tool currently only searches the Web, but expect that to be extended to local file searching in the not so distant future.
Microsoft has announced plans to release a new local file search tool prior to the introduction of Longhorn. According to a recent New York Times article, this could happen before the end of this year. Microsoft has missing launch dates in the past, so my money is on Google's tool hitting the market first, at least as a beta.
How will Google profit from local file search? Presumably, it would be ad supported like its Web based search service, or in its more recently announced Gmail service. Gmail is a free e-mail service that scans your e-mail content for keywords and then tries to display ads relevant to your message's content. Not unexpectedly, this has led to concerns regarding privacy. However, for businesses looking for greater targeted advertising options, it could open up a range of new opportunities.
With the coming tools for indexing all the documents on your computer, the latest question is do you trust Google to have access to all of the information on your hard drive? If not Google, then whom? That's the question consumers and privacy advocates are now asking. Access to your local files will be the next big battle ground fought over by the major search engines.
Google and others may have an uphill battle if Microsoft integrates its technology into the operating system and keeps it free of keyword scanning ads as with its many other tools bundled for free with Windows. That could give Microsoft the edge in the privacy battle. Microsoft will also be able to leverage its desktop monopoly to bundle its local search tool with every copy of Windows. This, combined with its greater knowledge and control of the operating system can be used to muscle out Google in the same way it did with Netscape in the browser wars. I admire Google for taking on Microsoft in the local file search arena, but I don't envy its uphill battle. The first thing I'd do is come up with a better code-name. A beast called the "Longhorn" sounds like it might spear Google's "Puffin" critter before it makes it out of the corral.
GOOGLE'S NEXT BIG MOVE
(Will your website be ready, or will you
be playing catch-up six months too late?)
November, 2003 might go down in history as
the month that Google shook a lot of smug webmasters and search
engine optimization (SEO) specialists from the apple tree.
But more than likely, it was just a precursor of the BIG shakeup
to come.
Google highly touts its secret PageRank
algorithm. Although PageRank is just one factor in
choosing what sites appear on a specific search, it is the
main way that Google determines the "importance" of a website.
In recent months, SEO specialists have become
expert at manipulating PageRank, particularly through
link exchanges.
There is nothing wrong with links. They make
the Web, a web, rather than a series of isolated islands.
However, PageRank relies on the naturally "democratic"
nature of the web, whereby webmasters link to sites they feel
are important for their visitors. Google rightly sees link
exchanges designed to boost PageRank as stuffing the
ballot box.
I was not surprised to see Google try to
counter all the SEO efforts. In fact, I have been arguing
the case with many non-believing SEO specialists over the
past couple months. But I was surprised to see the clumsy
way in which Google chose to do it.
Google targeted specific search terms, including
many of the most competitive and commercial terms. Many websites
lost top positions in five or six terms, but maintain their
positions in several others. This had never happened before.
For Google, this shakeup is just a temporary
fix. It will have to make much bigger changes if it is serious
about harnessing the "democratic" nature of the Web and neutralizing
the artificial results of so many link exchanges.
Here are a few techniques Google might use
(remember to think like a search engine):
1. Google might start valuing inbound links
within paragraphs much higher than links that stand on their
own (for all we know, Google is already doing this). Such
links are much less likely to be the product of a link exchange,
and therefore more likely to be genuine "democratic" votes.
2. Google might look at the concentration
of inbound links across a website. If most inbound links point
to the home page, that is another possible indicator of a
link exchange, or at least that the site's content is not
important enough to draw inbound links (and it is content
that Google wants to deliver to its searchers).
3. Google might take a sample of inbound
links to a domain, and check to see how many are reciprocated
back to the linking domains. If a high percentage are reciprocated,
Google might reduce the site's PageRank accordingly.
Or, it might set a cut-point, dropping from its index any
website with too many of its inbound links reciprocated.
4. Google might start valuing outbound links
more highly. Two pages with 100 inbound links are, in theory,
valued equally, even if one has 20 outbound links and the
other has none. But why should Google send its searchers down
a dead-end street, when the information highway is paved just
as smoothly on a major thoroughfare?
5. Google might weigh a website's outbound
link concentration. A website with most outbound links concentrated
on just a few pages is more likely to be a "link-exchanger"
than a site with links spread out across its pages.
Google might use a combination of these techniques
and ones not mentioned here. We cannot predict the exact algorithm,
nor can we assume that it will remain constant. What we can
do is to prepare our websites to look and act like a website
would on a "democratic" Web as Google would see it.
For Google to hold its own against upstart
search engines, it must deliver on its PageRank promise.
Its results reflect the "democratic" nature of the Web. Its
algorithm must prod webmasters to give links on their own
merit. That won't be easy or even completely possible. And
people will always find ways to turn Google's algorithm to
their advantage. But the techniques above can send the Internet
a long way back to where Google promises it will be.
The time is now to start preparing your website
for the changes to come.
CHANGES IN SEARCH ENGINE INDUSTRY
The changing landscape of the search engine
industry and how Google's dominance will once again be challenged
on two fronts by Yahoo and juggernaut Microsoft.
The good news is that few changes will need to be made in
your search optimization efforts. A highly ranked site in
Google has a very good chance of ranking well in Yahoo and
Microsoft when the changes do come.
My philosophy is there are only so many things
you can optimize on a web page. Maybe Yahoo will place more
emphasis on keyword density while Microsoft thinks link text
is more important while Google feels the Title is more relevant.
If you properly optimize all of these things from the get
go you should be fine.
I have several sites that rank well in both
Google and MSN, which is powered by Inktomi, for the same
keywords. Now that Yahoo owns Inktomi, it follows that once
Yahoo switches search results the site will rank well in their
results.
We must continually learn and sharpen our
skills but if we "bullet proof" our site through proper optimization
we stand a good chance of weathering the coming storm.
Open up your wallets
Search is a billion dollar business and except
for Google, every major search engine charges a fee for inclusion
in their database.
The big three have several options: free
listing, paid inclusion or pay per click. Microsoft can afford
not to charge for listing especially if they bundle their
new search technology with Windows. By offering free inclusion
they can rapidly build a database to compete with Google.
They can monetize their traffic by offering a service similar
to Google Adwords.
Yahoo may offer free inclusion for a short
time to bulk up their size but considering the background
of both Inktomi and Yahoo it is more probable they will continue
with paid inclusion.
Google is the one we all hope will never
change. Google is free and Adwords provides them with generous
revenue but no matter how well intentioned Google may one
day find themselves charging for inclusion.
Buying your way to the top
Free traffic is great except for one major
drawback. Time. Search optimization is very time consuming
and requires constant learning to stay ahead of any changes.
With the staggering rise in Pay Per Click
advertising's popularity, big companies and small upstarts
alike can buy their way in with minimal cost.
Suddenly, top placement in most search engines
and directories is only a credit card number away. If you
haven't already gotten in the PPC game or at the very least
entertained the thought of doing so, now is the time to make
your move while there are still many valuable keywords and
phrases available at minimal cost.
We are all fortunate enough to already realize
the huge potential of the Internet. No technology since television
has had more impact on the way we communicate and exchange
information. It is the largest untapped real estate market
in the world and the possibilities are limitless.
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